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10-Jun-2018 02:54

The NBER uses the skill, judgement, and expertise of its commissioners to determine whether the country is in a recession. It can use monthly data to determine when a peak has occurred, and the economy has just started to decline.

That allows it to be more precise and timely in its measurements. It's the official arbiter of economic expansions and contractions.

Definition: A recession is "a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." That's the official definition from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The NBER is the private non-profit that announces when recessions start and stop.

Although GDP was negative, prices hadn't fallen. That, along with wage/price controls, created double-digit inflation. The NBER declared the Great Recession over as of the third quarter 2009.

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There’s nothing more empowering than knowing someone’s watching your back.” The collective threats of financial and therefore emotional insecurity have resulted in a change of attitude.

Sometimes growth will be negative then turn positive in the next quarter.